Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 4?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $657 held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$657.36

Combined PnL

$225.97

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 98.6¢

+32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$647.66

Total Shares654

Combined PnL+$225.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.69

Total Shares587

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.7¢	$370.09	$265.55	-$1.09	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 7.4¢	$21.05	$173.97	+$227.55	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.2¢	$193.8	$132.97	-$1.16	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$34.01	$29.57	+$0.48	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$30.09	$21.16	+$0.12	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.99	$9.92	-$0.06	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$9.48	$9.51	+$0.03	42% 788-1101 (1889)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$9.35	$9.43	+$0.09	39% 5418-8450 (13868)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.13	$5.09	-$0.03	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.18	+$0.03	20% 2535-10042 (12577)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$370.09

Value

$265.55

PnL

-$1.09

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

haveagoodday

Invested

$21.05

Value

$173.97

PnL

+$227.55

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

Lucerys

Invested

$193.8

Value

$132.97

PnL

-$1.16

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.01

Value

$29.57

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$30.09

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.48

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

788-1101 (1889)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

5418-8450 (13868)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.