Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 2?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 86¢ · $382 held · ends Nov 2

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$381.91

Combined PnL

-$9.21

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 85.7¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$367.71

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$10.48

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.2

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$1.26

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 90¢	$220.36	$209.34	-$4.77	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 88.2¢	$129.23	$94.19	-$3.13	53% 7523-6647 (14170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$65.66	$43.29	-$2.2	57% 17228-12894 (30122)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$12.94	$14.2	+$1.26	61% 2345-1531 (3876)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$12.25	$12.06	-$0.19	92% 8583-746 (9329)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.51	$4.46	-$0.05	56% 3734-2961 (6695)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.5	$4.37	-$0.13	35% 704-1298 (2002)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$220.36

Value

$209.34

PnL

-$4.77

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$129.23

Value

$94.19

PnL

-$3.13

Record

53%

7523-6647 (14170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$65.66

Value

$43.29

PnL

-$2.2

Record

57%

17228-12894 (30122)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.94

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$1.26

Record

61%

2345-1531 (3876)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$0.19

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.05

Record

56%

3734-2961 (6695)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.13

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.2%

85.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.