Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 16?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $326 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$326.31
$0.38
99.5¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $134.6 | $134.46 | -$0.13 | 31% 1115-2464 (3579) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.74 | $59.76 | +$0.02 | 53% 7447-6561 (14008) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $49.75 | $49.8 | +$0.05 | 28% 1095-2777 (3872) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.89 | $30.38 | +$0.49 | 33% 81-164 (245) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.18 | $22.14 | -$0.04 | 37% 305-523 (828) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $9.96 | $9.96 | +$0 | 34% 347-663 (1010) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $7.12 | $7.13 | +$0.01 | 52% 936-867 (1803) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.05 | $7.03 | -$0.02 | 52% 900-835 (1735) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.14 | $5.15 | +$0.01 | 47% 881-992 (1873) |
Invested
$134.6
Value
$134.46
PnL
-$0.13
Record
31%
1115-2464 (3579)
Invested
$59.74
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
7447-6561 (14008)
Invested
$49.75
Value
$49.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
28%
1095-2777 (3872)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$30.38
PnL
+$0.49
Record
33%
81-164 (245)
Invested
$22.18
Value
$22.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
37%
305-523 (828)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.96
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
347-663 (1010)
Invested
$7.12
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
936-867 (1803)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$7.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
900-835 (1735)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
47%
881-992 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mildwindow27
No — $134.46
cigarettes
No — $59.76
graynotebook19
No — $49.8
123987456
No — $30.38
quietparcel
No — $22.14
godblessme2026
No — $9.96
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $7.13
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $7.03
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.15