Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 16?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 92¢ · $525 held · ends Nov 16

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$525.17

Combined PnL

$6.83

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 91.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$440.48

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$0.17

Yes2 traders

Total Value$84.29

Total Shares796

Combined PnL+$7

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.3¢	$172.56	$175.68	+$3.12	42% 783-1092 (1875)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 95.7¢	$129.21	$125.55	-$3.66	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$76.41	$83.67	+$7.26	43% 55-73 (128)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$56.2	$55.8	-$0.4	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$26.7	$27.29	+$0.58	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$18.6	+$0.8	71% 939-382 (1321)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.3	-$0.2	35% 325-598 (923)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.3	+$0	37% 305-523 (828)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.8	$6.66	-$0.14	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.71	$6.57	-$0.14	52% 936-867 (1803)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.86	$5.74	-$0.12	58% 859-610 (1469)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.88	$0.62	-$0.26	54% 1125-972 (2097)

241532532432

Invested

$172.56

Value

$175.68

PnL

+$3.12

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

graynotebook19

Invested

$129.21

Value

$125.55

PnL

-$3.66

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.41

Value

$83.67

PnL

+$7.26

Record

43%

55-73 (128)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.2

Value

$55.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$27.29

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$6.57

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.