Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 16?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 61¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 16

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$293.38

Combined PnL

$14.17

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 61¢

-10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$219.3

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$20.14

Yes4 traders

Total Value$74.08

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$34.31

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 69.6¢	$137.36	$120.31	-$17.05	34% 347-663 (1010)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$50.88	$61.63	+$10.75	54% 1125-972 (2097)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$38.6	$37.8	-$0.8	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$38.51	$36.29	-$2.22	71% 939-382 (1321)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5.23	$6.91	+$1.68	43% 55-73 (128)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.3	-$0.1	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$11.85	$5.73	-$0.18	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.44	$4.51	+$0.07	47% 881-992 (1873)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.4	$4.47	+$0.07	52% 900-835 (1735)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$3.48	$4.44	+$0.96	42% 783-1092 (1875)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.83	$3.89	+$0.06	60% 866-583 (1449)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.83	$1.09	+$20.92	35% 3888-7213 (11101)

godblessme2026

Invested

$137.36

Value

$120.31

PnL

-$17.05

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.88

Value

$61.63

PnL

+$10.75

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.6

Value

$37.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$38.51

Value

$36.29

PnL

-$2.22

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.23

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$1.68

Record

43%

55-73 (128)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.48

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.96

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$0.06

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.83

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$20.92

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.