Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 16?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 16

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$229.77

Combined PnL

-$6.12

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 56¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$197.61

Total Shares372

Combined PnL-$7.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.93

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$0.97

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$51.98	$60.94	+$8.96	42% 783-1092 (1875)
HE hello.67	Noavg 54¢	$164.99	$39.17	-$13.62	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$34.62	$34.95	+$0.33	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$24.6	$26	+$1.4	37% 305-523 (828)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$19.7	$18.21	-$1.48	71% 939-382 (1321)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$311.63	$13.72	+$2.45	54% 1125-972 (2097)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$17.1	$11.77	-$5.33	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 49¢	$10.89	$11.56	+$0.67	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 50¢	$3.55	$3.69	+$0.14	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 50¢	$3.53	$3.67	+$0.14	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 50¢	$3.09	$3.21	+$0.12	52% 900-835 (1735)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.55	$2.65	+$0.1	57% 831-625 (1456)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$51.98

Value

$60.94

PnL

+$8.96

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

hello.67

Invested

$164.99

Value

$39.17

PnL

-$13.62

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.62

Value

$34.95

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$26

PnL

+$1.4

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.7

Value

$18.21

PnL

-$1.48

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$311.63

Value

$13.72

PnL

+$2.45

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$5.33

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$0.67

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.14

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.