Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 16?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 92¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 16

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$366.48

Combined PnL

$4.49

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 91.5¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$356.66

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$8.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.82

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$4.24

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 90¢	$121.5	$122.85	+$1.35	35% 325-598 (923)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$89.18	$77.06	+$4.97	29% 293-715 (1008)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$54.4	$54.6	+$0.2	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$27.7	$29.12	+$1.42	71% 939-382 (1321)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89¢	$21.36	$21.84	+$0.48	14% 101-606 (707)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90¢	$20.01	$20.23	+$0.22	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91¢	$11.1	$11.1	-$0	50% 912-916 (1828)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$13.06	$9.09	-$3.97	42% 783-1092 (1875)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$6.83	$6.92	+$0.09	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 91¢	$6.52	$6.52	-$0	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 91¢	$6.42	$6.42	-$0	58% 859-610 (1469)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$1	$0.73	-$0.27	99% 1580-23 (1603)

smallreceipt

Invested

$121.5

Value

$122.85

PnL

+$1.35

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$89.18

Value

$77.06

PnL

+$4.97

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$54.4

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$1.42

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

$21.84

PnL

+$0.48

Record

14%

101-606 (707)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$20.01

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0.22

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.06

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$3.97

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.83

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.52

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.