Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$308

Combined PnL

-$5.29

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$307.72

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$5.02

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.5¢	$134.26	$134.06	-$0.2	37% 305-523 (828)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.6	$59.58	-$0.02	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$39.72	$39.72	+$0	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$32.01	$32	-$0.01	35% 325-598 (923)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$13.15	$13.14	-$0.01	47% 881-992 (1873)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.93	-$0.01	34% 347-663 (1010)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$7.12	$7.11	-$0.01	52% 900-835 (1735)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$7.06	$7.05	-$0.01	57% 831-625 (1456)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.14	$5.13	-$0.01	58% 859-610 (1469)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.29	$0.28	-$5.02	42% 5200-7083 (12283)

quietparcel

Invested

$134.26

Value

$134.06

PnL

-$0.2

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.6

Value

$59.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.72

Value

$39.72

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.01

Value

$32

PnL

-$0.01

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.15

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.29

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$5.02

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.