Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 15?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$103.29
-$1.18
98.3¢ → 98.1¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $31.08 | $30.85 | -$0.23 | 52% 916-856 (1772) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.8 | +$0.4 | 53% 7392-6516 (13908) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.38 | $19.8 | -$0.49 | 31% 1102-2456 (3558) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $9.84 | $9.9 | +$0.06 | 38% 308-501 (809) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $8.99 | $8.91 | -$0.08 | 57% 812-615 (1427) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $6.03 | $6.04 | +$0.01 | 50% 894-902 (1796) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $5.11 | $5.07 | -$0.04 | 58% 839-597 (1436) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.7 | $2.7 | +$0 | 53% 882-796 (1678) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.01 | $0.21 | -$0.8 | 28% 1077-2772 (3849) |
Invested
$31.08
Value
$30.85
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
916-856 (1772)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
7392-6516 (13908)
Invested
$29.38
Value
$19.8
PnL
-$0.49
Record
31%
1102-2456 (3558)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
308-501 (809)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
812-615 (1427)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
894-902 (1796)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.04
Record
58%
839-597 (1436)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
882-796 (1678)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$0.8
Record
28%
1077-2772 (3849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $30.85
cigarettes
No — $19.8
mildwindow27
No — $19.8
god83743894
No — $9.9
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $8.91
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $6.04
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $5.07
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $2.7
graynotebook19
CTRYes — $0.21