Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 71¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 15

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$251.59

Combined PnL

-$2.89

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 70.7¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$160.73

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$3.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$90.84

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$0.46

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 68.1¢	$105.38	$97.4	-$7.98	68% 89-42 (131)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$82.15	$82.76	+$0.62	54% 1229-1029 (2258)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$16.54	$15.62	-$0.92	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$21.77	$12.99	-$0.14	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$8.62	$8.35	-$0.27	52% 837-762 (1599)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$8.24	$8.08	-$0.16	54% 2315-2002 (4317)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$6.52	$6.34	-$0.18	58% 771-565 (1336)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$42.37	$6.29	+$9.77	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$5.71	$5.62	-$0.09	51% 872-825 (1697)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$4.6	$4.47	-$0.13	49% 849-871 (1720)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$37.78	$1.92	-$3.4	65% 4342-2359 (6701)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$1.74	$1.72	-$0.02	50% 784-774 (1558)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$105.38

Value

$97.4

PnL

-$7.98

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.15

Value

$82.76

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

1229-1029 (2258)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.54

Value

$15.62

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.77

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

2315-2002 (4317)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.52

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$42.37

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$9.77

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$37.78

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$3.4

Record

65%

4342-2359 (6701)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.7%

70.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.