Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 42¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 15

Yes58¢No42¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$243.06

Combined PnL

$29.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$207.62

Total Shares362

Combined PnL+$22.2

No5 traders

Total Value$35.43

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$7.49

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 53¢	$95.03	$102.83	+$7.8	54% 2293-1917 (4210)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$79.35	$86.95	+$7.6	55% 1219-1010 (2229)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$14.05	$12.6	-$1.45	30% 248-580 (828)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	$10.04	$11.47	+$1.43	40% 670-997 (1667)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 41.8¢	$26.97	$9.31	+$0.53	31% 177-394 (571)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$8.4	-$1.6	53% 7092-6207 (13299)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$6.37	+$5.36	27% 1024-2718 (3742)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.22	+$0.02	34% 236-460 (696)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$10.25	$0.9	+$9.99	29% 3194-7986 (11180)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$95.03

Value

$102.83

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

2293-1917 (4210)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.35

Value

$86.95

PnL

+$7.6

Record

55%

1219-1010 (2229)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$14.05

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$1.45

Record

30%

248-580 (828)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.04

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$1.43

Record

40%

670-997 (1667)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$26.97

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0.53

Record

31%

177-394 (571)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

7092-6207 (13299)

graynotebook19<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$5.36

Record

27%

1024-2718 (3742)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

34%

236-460 (696)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$9.99

Record

29%

3194-7986 (11180)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.6%

42.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$124.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

224.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.