Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 90¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$69.72

Combined PnL

$2.23

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$64.24

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$1.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.47

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$0.76

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$18.41	$18.2	-$0.2	60% 796-535 (1331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$15.66	$17.33	+$1.67	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$11.02	$10.93	-$0.09	58% 794-568 (1362)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$7.4	$7.34	-$0.07	50% 784-774 (1558)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.57	+$0.27	32% 76-160 (236)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$3	$3.48	+$0.48	41% 726-1042 (1768)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$3.49	$3.43	-$0.06	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.49	$2.45	-$0.04	51% 872-825 (1697)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.59	$1.03	+$0.32	25% 733-2166 (2899)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.97	-$0.04	28% 1057-2761 (3818)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$18.41

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.27

Record

32%

76-160 (236)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.32

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.