Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $520 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$520.36

Combined PnL

$10.34

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.1¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$520.13

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$13.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$2.67

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.1¢	$356.25	$368.06	+$11.81	41% 726-1042 (1768)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$40.56	$41.45	+$0.9	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.79	-$0.03	38% 289-472 (761)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$20.1	$20.08	-$0.02	50% 784-774 (1558)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.86	+$0.06	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$12.06	$12.05	-$0.01	52% 837-762 (1599)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.7	$9.93	+$0.23	30% 1138-2687 (3825)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$8.09	$8.09	+$0	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$6.06	$6.04	-$0.02	49% 820-849 (1669)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$4.68	$4.77	+$0.09	32% 76-160 (236)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.12	-$0.89	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.55	$0.1	-$1.79	25% 733-2166 (2899)

241532532432

Invested

$356.25

Value

$368.06

PnL

+$11.81

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.56

Value

$41.45

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$20.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.23

Record

30%

1138-2687 (3825)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.09

Record

32%

76-160 (236)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.89

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.55

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.79

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.