Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $84 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$83.79

Combined PnL

-$18.88

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$83.48

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$8.51

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.3

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$10.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.94	-$0.03	34% 333-661 (994)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.96	+$0.08	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.02	$10.97	-$0.05	59% 843-574 (1417)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$99.57	$9.95	-$8.5	28% 3267-8303 (11570)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.16	$9.15	-$0.01	47% 870-964 (1834)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1517-23 (1540)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.58	$0.15	-$7.56	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.49	$0.09	-$1.86	24% 762-2435 (3197)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.06	-$0.95	28% 1077-2772 (3849)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0.03

Record

34%

333-661 (994)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$10.97

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$99.57

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$8.5

Record

28%

3267-8303 (11570)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.58

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$7.56

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.49

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.86

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.95

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.