Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 92¢ · $564 held · ends Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$563.62

Combined PnL

-$20.67

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 92.1¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$560.8

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$16.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.8

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$4.14

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.8¢	$432.84	$420.04	-$12.8	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$67.56	$63.72	-$3.83	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 93¢	$25.1	$24.4	-$0.7	30% 1036-2402 (3438)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$55.25	$20.57	+$0.5	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$9.21	$9.25	+$0.05	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$9.2	$9.25	+$0.06	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$8.31	$8.35	+$0.05	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$5.05	$5.2	+$0.15	51% 719-703 (1422)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$134.91	$1.92	-$3.87	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	99% 1281-15 (1296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$0.15	$0.13	-$0.03	59% 724-513 (1237)

241532532432

Invested

$432.84

Value

$420.04

PnL

-$12.8

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$67.56

Value

$63.72

PnL

-$3.83

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$25.1

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$0.7

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.25

Value

$20.57

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.21

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.31

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.91

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$3.87

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.4%

92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.