Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$145.18

Combined PnL

-$26.3

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$144.82

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$0.26

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares271

Combined PnL-$26.56

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$60.23	$60.43	+$0.2	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$26.91	$26.96	+$0.05	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.23	$20.23	+$0	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.34	$14.33	-$0.01	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.19	$10.2	+$0.01	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.16	$10.16	+$0	59% 724-513 (1237)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1281-15 (1296)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20	$0.18	-$19.67	31% 161-352 (513)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.32	$0.1	-$4.23	26% 548-1577 (2125)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.06	-$2.67	34% 244-467 (711)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0	+$0	51% 769-727 (1496)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$60.23

Value

$60.43

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$26.91

Value

$26.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$20.23

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.34

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$19.67

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$4.23

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.67

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.