Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $547 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$546.71

Combined PnL

-$26.24

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 96.7¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$483.44

Total Shares504

Combined PnL+$16.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$63.26

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL-$43.17

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 92.3¢	$512.23	$284.39	+$13.44	31% 146-327 (473)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$66.16	$67.53	+$1.37	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$85.97	$47.96	-$38.01	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$37.55	$38.86	+$1.3	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$35.49	$32.65	+$0.12	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95¢	$25.64	$25.86	+$0.22	34% 263-521 (784)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$20.46	$15.3	-$5.16	40% 625-948 (1573)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 96¢	$14.16	$14.13	-$0.03	29% 62-155 (217)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91¢	$9.74	$10.25	+$0.51	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$9.78	$9.78	-$0.01	58% 703-504 (1207)

Haradwaith

Invested

$512.23

Value

$284.39

PnL

+$13.44

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$66.16

Value

$67.53

PnL

+$1.37

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.97

Value

$47.96

PnL

-$38.01

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.55

Value

$38.86

PnL

+$1.3

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$35.49

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.64

Value

$25.86

PnL

+$0.22

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.46

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$5.16

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.51

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.