Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 14?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 41¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$269.46
$31.91
38.5¢ → 41¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $102.98 | $100.38 | -$2.6 | 55% 1088-874 (1962) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.3¢ | $94.41 | $55.76 | +$35.37 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60.1¢ | $42.39 | $41.59 | -$0.8 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $36.31 | $35.46 | -$0.84 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $15.38 | $15.92 | +$0.54 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $7.2 | $7.26 | +$0.06 | 13% 76-495 (571) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 59.7¢ | $6.57 | $6.5 | -$0.08 | 72% 823-323 (1146) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.36 | $3.61 | +$0.24 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.97 | +$0.02 | 40% 620-939 (1559) |
Invested
$102.98
Value
$100.38
PnL
-$2.6
Record
55%
1088-874 (1962)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$94.41
Value
$55.76
PnL
+$35.37
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$42.39
Value
$41.59
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$36.31
Value
$35.46
PnL
-$0.84
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$0.54
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0.06
Record
13%
76-495 (571)
Invested
$6.57
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$0.08
Record
72%
823-323 (1146)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
620-939 (1559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.