Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$188.83
$0.9
98.5¢ → 97.8¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $58.99 | $59.4 | +$0.41 | 17% 76-375 (451) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $45.06 | $45.05 | -$0.01 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $27.65 | $27.72 | +$0.07 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $17.64 | $17.92 | +$0.27 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $16.17 | $16.17 | +$0 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $13.53 | $13.58 | +$0.05 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $8.89 | $9 | +$0.11 | 27% 105-284 (389) |
Invested
$58.99
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$0.41
Record
17%
76-375 (451)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.06
Value
$45.05
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$17.92
PnL
+$0.27
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$16.17
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.53
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$8.89
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.11
Record
27%
105-284 (389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.