Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$190.17
$0.15
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $45.43 | $45.45 | +$0.02 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.36 | $39.4 | +$0.04 | 49% 407-426 (833) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.01 | $39.05 | +$0.04 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.97 | +$0.03 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.31 | $16.31 | +$0 | 27% 105-284 (389) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.43
Value
$45.45
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$39.36
Value
$39.4
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
407-426 (833)
Invested
$39.01
Value
$39.05
PnL
+$0.04
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$16.31
Value
$16.31
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
105-284 (389)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.