Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 12?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $500 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$500.19

Combined PnL

-$0.17

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$500.19

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$0.17

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$172.13	$172.04	-$0.09	38% 3321-5397 (8718)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.9¢	$143.95	$143.95	+$0	27% 939-2515 (3454)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.89	-$0.04	17% 68-331 (399)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.25	$31.23	-$0.02	47% 436-490 (926)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	40% 1461-2159 (3620)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.78	$20.77	-$0.01	28% 530-1372 (1902)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.31	$16.31	+$0	25% 81-244 (325)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	31% 2830-6233 (9063)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.06	$1.06	+$0	42% 743-1014 (1757)

Lucerys

Invested

$172.13

Value

$172.04

PnL

-$0.09

Record

38%

3321-5397 (8718)

northdrawer

Invested

$143.95

Value

$143.95

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

939-2515 (3454)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.89

PnL

-$0.04

Record

17%

68-331 (399)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$31.25

Value

$31.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

436-490 (926)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

1461-2159 (3620)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$20.78

Value

$20.77

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$16.31

Value

$16.31

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

81-244 (325)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

2830-6233 (9063)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

743-1014 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.