Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $730 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$730.19
-$0
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $599.4 | $599.4 | -$0 | 99% 335-2 (337) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $45.45 | $45.45 | +$0 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 27% 105-284 (389) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.39 | $25.39 | +$0 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$599.4
Value
$599.4
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
335-2 (337)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.45
Value
$45.45
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
105-284 (389)
Invested
$25.39
Value
$25.39
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.