Will the highest temperature in Paris be 5°C or below on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $502 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$501.68
-$0.14
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $199.8 | $199.8 | +$0 | 99% 340-2 (342) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $120.58 | $120.46 | -$0.12 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.9¢ | $100.32 | $100.32 | +$0 | 40% 1461-2159 (3620) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.13 | $10.12 | -$0.01 | 49% 412-428 (840) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 31% 2830-6233 (9063) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.06 | $1.06 | -$0 | 45% 446-539 (985) |
Invested
$199.8
Value
$199.8
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
340-2 (342)
LucerysInvested
$120.58
Value
$120.46
PnL
-$0.12
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$100.32
Value
$100.32
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1461-2159 (3620)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Invested
$10.13
Value
$10.12
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
412-428 (840)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
2830-6233 (9063)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
446-539 (985)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.