Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$209.72
$0.13
99.6¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $55.21 | $55.2 | -$0.01 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $45.34 | $45.32 | -$0.02 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.28 | $39.28 | +$0 | 44% 423-534 (957) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.89 | $29.88 | -$0.01 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.89 | $19.92 | +$0.03 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.92 | +$0 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.06 | $0.2 | +$0.14 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
Invested
$55.21
Value
$55.2
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.34
Value
$45.32
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$39.28
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
423-534 (957)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.01
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.