Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $139 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$138.94
$2.66
95.9¢ → 97.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $42.21 | $44.1 | +$1.89 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.37 | $29.28 | -$0.09 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $26.6 | $27.33 | +$0.73 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.59 | $19.52 | -$0.07 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.8 | +$0.2 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $8.9 | $8.91 | +$0.01 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$42.21
Value
$44.1
PnL
+$1.89
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.28
PnL
-$0.09
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$26.6
Value
$27.33
PnL
+$0.73
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.59
Value
$19.52
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$8.91
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.