Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $646 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$645.89
-$11.66
69.7¢ → 82.5¢
+18% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $361.25 | $346.8 | -$14.45 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $160.84 | $159.26 | -$1.58 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $51.45 | $51.71 | +$0.26 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $24.3 | $24.15 | -$0.15 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $18.68 | $22.54 | +$3.86 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $17.75 | $17.97 | +$0.22 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $16.1 | -$0.1 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $7.09 | $7.36 | +$0.27 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
Invested
$361.25
Value
$346.8
PnL
-$14.45
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Invested
$160.84
Value
$159.26
PnL
-$1.58
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$51.45
Value
$51.71
PnL
+$0.26
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$0.15
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$22.54
PnL
+$3.86
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$17.75
Value
$17.97
PnL
+$0.22
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$7.09
Value
$7.36
PnL
+$0.27
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.