Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 12?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 46¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$346.68
-$4.51
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 44.4¢ | $189.78 | $187.4 | -$2.38 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $61.04 | $61.04 | +$0 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $61.01 | $59.11 | -$1.9 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $18.64 | $18.3 | -$0.35 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $11.2 | +$0.2 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $9.72 | $9.64 | -$0.08 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$189.78
Value
$187.4
PnL
-$2.38
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$61.04
Value
$61.04
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$61.01
Value
$59.11
PnL
-$1.9
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$18.64
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$0.35
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.64
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.