Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 12?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 73¢ · $341 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$340.71
$23.77
72.3¢ → 72.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $179.88 | $187.08 | +$7.2 | 61% 1145-747 (1892) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $39.76 | $38.07 | -$1.69 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $12.93 | $22.87 | +$9.94 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $11.42 | $22.34 | +$10.92 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $21 | $21.75 | +$0.75 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $23.8 | $20.3 | -$3.5 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $14.5 | +$0.1 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $6.73 | $7 | +$0.27 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.02 | $6.8 | -$0.22 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
Invested
$179.88
Value
$187.08
PnL
+$7.2
Record
61%
1145-747 (1892)
Invested
$39.76
Value
$38.07
PnL
-$1.69
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Invested
$12.93
Value
$22.87
PnL
+$9.94
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Invested
$11.42
Value
$22.34
PnL
+$10.92
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$21
Value
$21.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$3.5
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$6.73
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.27
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.22
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.