Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$104.05
-$17.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $51.18 | $52.02 | +$0.83 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $41.66 | $23.4 | -$18.26 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $21.25 | $21.53 | +$0.28 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $4.6 | -$0.1 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.42 | $2.5 | +$0.08 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
Invested
$51.18
Value
$52.02
PnL
+$0.83
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$41.66
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$18.26
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$21.53
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.08
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.