Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 60¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$148.02
$7.12
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $61.89 | $65.91 | +$4.02 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57.9¢ | $32.76 | $35.62 | +$2.86 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $25.95 | $25.95 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.63 | $15.67 | +$0.05 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | +$0 | 40% 644-964 (1608) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $1.52 | $1.71 | +$0.19 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
Invested
$61.89
Value
$65.91
PnL
+$4.02
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$32.76
Value
$35.62
PnL
+$2.86
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$25.95
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$15.63
Value
$15.67
PnL
+$0.05
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
644-964 (1608)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0.19
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.