Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 57¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$201.84
$4.16
59.9¢ → 57.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $76.18 | $85.36 | +$9.18 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $58.66 | $58.12 | -$0.54 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60.7¢ | $34.3 | $32.51 | -$1.79 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $17.04 | $15.16 | -$1.87 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $9.36 | $8.04 | -$1.32 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $1.74 | $1.5 | -$0.24 | 26% 1207-3517 (4724) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $3.74 | $1.16 | +$0.74 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$76.18
Value
$85.36
PnL
+$9.18
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$58.66
Value
$58.12
PnL
-$0.54
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$34.3
Value
$32.51
PnL
-$1.79
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$15.16
PnL
-$1.87
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$8.04
PnL
-$1.32
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$0.24
Record
26%
1207-3517 (4724)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.74
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.