Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$342.28
$3.61
90¢ → 91.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90¢ | $262.27 | $264.78 | +$2.51 | 28% 213-547 (760) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $36.2 | $36.4 | +$0.2 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $26.67 | $27.67 | +$1 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.08 | $10.96 | -$0.12 | 69% 2060-945 (3005) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $2.45 | $2.48 | +$0.03 | 26% 1205-3516 (4721) |
Invested
$262.27
Value
$264.78
PnL
+$2.51
Record
28%
213-547 (760)
Invested
$36.2
Value
$36.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$26.67
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$11.08
Value
$10.96
PnL
-$0.12
Record
69%
2060-945 (3005)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.03
Record
26%
1205-3516 (4721)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.