Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on November 10?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $466 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$465.74
$0.44
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $299.37 | $299.7 | +$0.33 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $65.39 | $65.39 | +$0 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.24 | $29.24 | +$0 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.98 | $18.98 | +$0 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.23 | $10.23 | +$0 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 11% 28-230 (258) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.99 | $8.99 | +$0 | 36% 462-806 (1268) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $5.51 | $5.62 | +$0.11 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.6 | $0.6 | +$0 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$299.37
Value
$299.7
PnL
+$0.33
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$65.39
Value
$65.39
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$29.24
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$18.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
28-230 (258)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
462-806 (1268)
Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.11
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
1DVSBSTD
No — $299.7
Lucerys
No — $65.39
luciebot
No — $29.24
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $18.98
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $10.23
qwen300.fund
No — $9.99
northdrawer
No — $9.99
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $8.99
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $7
ghorrock
No — $5.62