Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 10?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$183.83

Combined PnL

-$31.02

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 97.9¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$171.4

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$0.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.43

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$30.72

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$63.8	$63.69	-$0.11	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$27.65	$27.54	-$0.11	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$15.48	$15.36	-$0.12	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$14.74	$14.84	+$0.1	28% 153-400 (553)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$43.15	$12.43	-$30.72	21% 132-485 (617)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$16.13	$11.22	-$0.03	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.89	$9.73	-$0.16	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.58	$9.42	-$0.16	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.92	$6.87	-$0.05	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.12	$5	-$0.12	30% 174-414 (588)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.87	+$0.07	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$2.45	$2.86	+$0.41	36% 462-806 (1268)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$63.8

Value

$63.69

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.65

Value

$27.54

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.48

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$0.12

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$14.84

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.15

Value

$12.43

PnL

-$30.72

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$16.13

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$0.03

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.73

PnL

-$0.16

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.16

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.87

PnL

-$0.05

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.07

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.41

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.