Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 26¢ · $843 held · ends Nov 1

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$843.48

Combined PnL

-$0.32

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$41.41

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$0.63

No1 trader

Total Value$6.16

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.31

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$652.83	$659.14	+$6.32	50% 647-636 (1283)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.3¢	$493.39	$498.2	+$4.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.8¢	$159.44	$160.95	+$1.5
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$140.11	$136.76	-$3.12	20% 312-1273 (1585)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.1¢	$102.72	$101.2	-$1.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.2¢	$37.18	$35.56	-$1.61
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$42.04	$41.41	-$0.63	59% 1805-1255 (3060)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$5.85	$6.16	+$0.31	57% 13766-10533 (24299)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$652.83

Value

$659.14

PnL

+$6.32

Record

50%

647-636 (1283)

Both legs:

No$493.3973.3¢+$4.81

Yes$159.4425.8¢+$1.5

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$140.11

Value

$136.76

PnL

-$3.12

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.04

Value

$41.41

PnL

-$0.63

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.31

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.