Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 37¢ · $698 held · ends Oct 30

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$697.9

Combined PnL

$260.25

Smart Money Entry

32¢ → 37¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$692.23

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL+$259.05

No1 trader

Total Value$5.67

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$1.2

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 32.3¢	$357.75	$664.94	+$251.97	21% 300-1130 (1430)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$19	$24.73	+$6.87	56% 368-292 (660)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$19.47	$5.67	+$1.2	53% 6477-5678 (12155)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$5.03	$2.55	+$0.21	57% 13591-10418 (24009)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$357.75

Value

$664.94

PnL

+$251.97

Record

21%

300-1130 (1430)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$24.73

PnL

+$6.87

Record

56%

368-292 (660)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

6477-5678 (12155)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.03

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.