Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$186.64

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 74.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,342

Combined PnL+$98.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$371.43

Total Shares1,074

Combined PnL+$88.46

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 67.1¢	$810.39	$864.59	+$90.9	21% 295-1086 (1381)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$270.58	$359.24	+$88.65	47% 628-714 (1342)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 67¢	$116.41	$123.32	+$6.91	56% 357-286 (643)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$26.09	$19.03	+$0.37	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.9¢	$12.39	$12.19	-$0.2	50% 1747-1730 (3477)

Istaroth

Invested

$810.39

Value

$864.59

PnL

+$90.9

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$270.58

Value

$359.24

PnL

+$88.65

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$116.41

Value

$123.32

PnL

+$6.91

Record

56%

357-286 (643)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.09

Value

$19.03

PnL

+$0.37

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.39

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1747-1730 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.