Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $447 held · ended Oct 27

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$447.12

Combined PnL

$14.96

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 16¢

-61% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$369.21

Total Shares650

Combined PnL+$9.83

No2 traders

Total Value$77.91

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$5.13

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$192.93	$203.97	+$11.04	46% 559-650 (1209)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 50.7¢	$163.96	$162	-$1.17	31% 273-604 (877)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$70.67	$69.81	-$0.86	50% 1627-1615 (3242)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$11.56	$8.09	+$5.98	57% 12917-9835 (22752)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$3.28	$3.24	-$0.04	53% 6241-5478 (11719)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$192.93

Value

$203.97

PnL

+$11.04

Record

46%

559-650 (1209)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.96

Value

$162

PnL

-$1.17

Record

31%

273-604 (877)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$70.67

Value

$69.81

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

1627-1615 (3242)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.56

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$5.98

Record

57%

12917-9835 (22752)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

6241-5478 (11719)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.