Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on November 9?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $605 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$605.09
$74.36
82.7¢ → 99.7¢
+21% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $322.62 | $393.9 | +$71.28 | — |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $76.92 | $76.69 | -$0.23 | — |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $68.86 | $69.76 | +$0.9 | — |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $27.65 | $28.16 | +$0.51 | — |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $18.31 | $21.08 | +$2.77 | — |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $8.12 | $8.08 | +$0.12 | — |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.03 | $6.02 | -$0.02 | — |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $1.47 | $1.41 | -$0.96 | — |
Invested
$322.62
Value
$393.9
PnL
+$71.28
Record
—
Invested
$76.92
Value
$76.69
PnL
-$0.23
Record
—
Invested
$68.86
Value
$69.76
PnL
+$0.9
Record
—
Invested
$27.65
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0.51
Record
—
Invested
$18.31
Value
$21.08
PnL
+$2.77
Record
—
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.12
Value
$8.08
PnL
+$0.12
Record
—
Invested
$6.03
Value
$6.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0.96
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.