Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on November 9?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $194 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$194.48

Combined PnL

-$92.36

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 0.2¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$191.58

Total Shares192

Combined PnL+$6.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.91

Total Shares465

Combined PnL-$98.82

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$76.7	$76.81	+$0.11	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$45.78	$49.83	+$4.05	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98¢	$30.48	$30.95	+$0.47	—
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$26.19	$28.01	+$1.82	—
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.98	$5.99	+$0.01	—
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 43.9¢	$33.85	$1.62	-$32.23	—
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.6¢	$67.36	$0.76	-$66.6	—
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.52	+$0.01	—

luciebot<$100

Invested

$76.7

Value

$76.81

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$45.78

Value

$49.83

PnL

+$4.05

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30.48

Value

$30.95

PnL

+$0.47

Record

—

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$26.19

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$1.82

Record

—

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$33.85

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$32.23

Record

—

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.36

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$66.6

Record

—

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.