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NoNo
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 8?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$1.41
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares47
Combined PnL-$1.07
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$2.48
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.8¢ | $0.66 | — | -$0.66 | 46% 6186-7387 (13573) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.8¢ | $0.41 | — | -$0.41 | 50% 65525-65845 (131370) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35305-83677 (118982) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3396-11845 (15241) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 25985-21276 (47261) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $2.51 | — | +$2.48 | 57% 918-700 (1618) |
0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
—
PnL
-$0.66
Record
46%
6186-7387 (13573)
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
—
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
65525-65845 (131370)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35305-83677 (118982)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3396-11845 (15241)
PO
Poligarch<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
25985-21276 (47261)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
$2.51
Value
—
PnL
+$2.48
Record
57%
918-700 (1618)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x034968d7...177745
Slug
highest-temperature-in-panama-city-on-november-8-2026-31c