Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on November 5?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 92¢ · $439 held · ends Nov 5

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$438.64

Combined PnL

-$3.87

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 91.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$437.04

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$3.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 90.6¢	$121.18	$122.42	+$1.24	76% 12747-3983 (16730)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 91.2¢	$111.45	$111.78	+$0.33	47% 2238-2490 (4728)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$81.73	$81.53	-$0.21	50% 9845-9824 (19669)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$47.49	$44.68	-$2.81	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.1	$25.8	-$0.3	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$17.52	$16.22	-$1.3	15% 498-2922 (3420)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$11.46	$11.17	-$0.29	54% 10084-8706 (18790)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.75	$8.65	-$0.1	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$6.4	$6.02	-$0.38	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.4	$4.4	+$0	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.43	$4.38	-$0.05	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.6	$1.6	+$0	20% 2607-10331 (12938)

Lucerys

Invested

$121.18

Value

$122.42

PnL

+$1.24

Record

76%

12747-3983 (16730)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$111.45

Value

$111.78

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

2238-2490 (4728)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$81.73

Value

$81.53

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

9845-9824 (19669)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$47.49

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$2.81

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$25.8

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$17.52

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$1.3

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.46

Value

$11.17

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

10084-8706 (18790)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.38

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.