Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on November 15?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 32¢ · $468 held · ended Nov 15

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$468.2

Combined PnL

$76.57

Smart Money Entry

14.6¢ → 32.1¢

+119% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$271.12

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL+$82.31

No7 traders

Total Value$56.62

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$5.74

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$124.01	$173.74	+$49.74	42% 57-78 (135)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$134.24	$140.45	+$6.22	71% 954-392 (1346)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.7¢	$106.44	$108.8	+$2.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.1¢	$27.8	$31.66	+$3.86
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$113.62	$89.41	+$34.12	42% 808-1111 (1919)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 82.6¢	$104.08	$19.21	+$0.09	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$18.14	$15.66	-$2.48	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$11.81	$7.94	-$3.86	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$7.82	$6.2	-$1.62	67% 89-44 (133)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$3.98	$4.24	+$0.26	57% 851-641 (1492)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.3	$3.67	+$0.37	50% 932-930 (1862)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$2.66	$3.17	+$0.51	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$3.35	$2.72	-$0.63	52% 959-896 (1855)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$0.7	$1.05	+$0.35	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1	$0.73	-$0.27	49% 868-890 (1758)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.01

Value

$173.74

PnL

+$49.74

Record

42%

57-78 (135)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$134.24

Value

$140.45

PnL

+$6.22

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

Both legs:

Invested

$113.62

Value

$89.41

PnL

+$34.12

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

ghorrock

Invested

$104.08

Value

$19.21

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.14

Value

$15.66

PnL

-$2.48

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.81

Value

$7.94

PnL

-$3.86

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$1.62

Record

67%

89-44 (133)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.26

Record

57%

851-641 (1492)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$0.51

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.63

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.35

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.3%

32.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$191.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

291.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.