Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on November 15?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 28¢ · $89 held · ended Nov 15

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$89.42

Combined PnL

$22.2

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$69.17

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$26.84

No7 traders

Total Value$20.1

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$4.64

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$84.53	$47.9	+$22.91	42% 808-1111 (1919)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$7.75	$8.82	+$1.07	71% 954-392 (1346)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$13.84	$8.33	-$5.26	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 56.1¢	$5.76	$8.03	+$2.27	47% 898-1015 (1913)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$3.32	$3.45	+$0.13	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.86	$2.9	+$0.04	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.37	$2.23	+$0.86	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.03	$2.06	+$0.03	49% 868-890 (1758)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.25	$1.72	-$0.53	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.81	$1.5	-$0.3	52% 959-896 (1855)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$0.83	$1.35	+$0.52	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.97	+$0.45	54% 1240-1053 (2293)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.53

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$22.91

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.75

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$1.07

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.84

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$5.26

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$2.27

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.53

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.52

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

1240-1053 (2293)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.