Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on November 14?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 67¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$286.6
-$7.44
73.8¢ → 67.2¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 74.3¢ | $148.6 | $136.4 | -$12.2 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $164.47 | $95.42 | +$5.95 | 56% 1189-918 (2107) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $18.27 | $18.07 | -$0.2 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $15.36 | $13.66 | -$1.7 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 70.6¢ | $14.12 | $13.64 | -$0.48 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $3.83 | $4.99 | +$1.16 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $4.38 | $4.41 | +$0.03 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
HaradwaithInvested
$148.6
Value
$136.4
PnL
-$12.2
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$164.47
Value
$95.42
PnL
+$5.95
Record
56%
1189-918 (2107)
Invested
$18.27
Value
$18.07
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$15.36
Value
$13.66
PnL
-$1.7
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$14.12
Value
$13.64
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$3.83
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$1.16
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.