Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 78¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$431.25
$6.4
79.1¢ → 78¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $232.32 | $239.92 | +$7.61 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $87.65 | $89.13 | +$1.48 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $36 | $35.1 | -$0.9 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $23.4 | -$0.3 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $24.82 | $21.71 | -$1.47 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $15.6 | -$0.6 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $5.8 | $6.38 | +$0.58 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
Invested
$232.32
Value
$239.92
PnL
+$7.61
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$87.65
Value
$89.13
PnL
+$1.48
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36
Value
$35.1
PnL
-$0.9
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$24.82
Value
$21.71
PnL
-$1.47
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$15.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$6.38
PnL
+$0.58
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.