Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on November 12?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 48¢ · $248 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$248.24
$7.19
45¢ → 48¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 44.9¢ | $158.5 | $166.09 | +$7.59 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $25.2 | $25.2 | -$0 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $28.75 | $21.35 | -$0.81 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $18.4 | $18.8 | +$0.4 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.8 | $16.8 | -$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$158.5
Value
$166.09
PnL
+$7.59
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.2
Value
$25.2
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$28.75
Value
$21.35
PnL
-$0.81
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.