Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 30¢ · $173 held · ended Nov 12

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$173.24

Combined PnL

$103.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$133.73

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$121.39

No7 traders

Total Value$39.52

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$17.99

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 15¢	$113.51	$83.75	+$88.45	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$38.04	$49.98	+$32.94	37% 457-784 (1241)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$20.7	$12.9	-$7.8	28% 133-348 (481)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 50.3¢	$7.67	$6.55	-$1.11	46% 562-657 (1219)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$5.93	$5.67	-$0.26	61% 517-328 (845)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.72	$4.43	-$3.29	61% 524-330 (854)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$6.52	$3.9	-$2.63	48% 554-604 (1158)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$6.67	$3.87	-$2.8	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.3	$2.2	-$0.1	43% 890-1199 (2089)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$113.51

Value

$83.75

PnL

+$88.45

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.04

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$32.94

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$7.8

Record

28%

133-348 (481)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$7.67

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$1.11

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$0.26

Record

61%

517-328 (845)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$3.29

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.52

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$2.63

Record

48%

554-604 (1158)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.