Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C or higher on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 72¢ · $52 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$51.77
$2.4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $17.9 | $19.15 | +$1.26 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $13.4 | +$0 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $8.53 | $8.58 | +$0.05 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6.7 | +$0.8 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $3.65 | $3.94 | +$0.29 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.9
Value
$19.15
PnL
+$1.26
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$8.53
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6.7
PnL
+$0.8
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.94
PnL
+$0.29
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.