Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$147.14
$1.78
97.7¢ → 98.9¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 97.9¢ | $99.85 | $100.88 | +$1.02 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $19.44 | $19.78 | +$0.34 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $13.48 | $13.83 | +$0.35 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $12.6 | $12.66 | +$0.06 | 38% 1193-1980 (3173) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.